A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses something to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
